MyDD :: Democrats defecting is not a big story but a media created narrative.

Democrats defecting is not a big story but a media created narrative.

by RAULC, Wed Mar 26, 2008 at 02:11:33 PM EST

This past week a lot of commentary has been devoted to the fact that many supporters of either candidate in the Democratic Party primaries would defect to McCain in the general election. Historically, because the Democratic Party has a wider ideological support, it has hemorraged 10% of its vote in the general (FROM CNN 2004 exit polling: Democrat (37%) 11% R 89% D). Thus, the 20% number represents a normal historical trend. (20% of half represent 10% of the total). The 30% for Hillary's supporters defecting is higher than average and may represent statistical noise reflecting some recent dispirited passion. But the salient point is that one may select an average statistic from elections past and create a narrative where there is none.

Tags: polls, elections (all tags)

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Re: Democrats defecting is not a big story but a m (none / 0)

Democrats will not defect this is another media rouse.
Not when they will find out that grandpa will send them to a 100 year war.

McCain: The Past, Obama: The Future

by KathyM on Wed Mar 26, 2008 at 02:22:28 PM EST

Re: Democrats defecting is not a big story but a m (none / 0)

It's not necessarily media created. This is the first time that the DNC is punishing states by stripping them of their delegates.

That changes this. If that weren't happening, I would think it was media created, but we're talking about disenfranchising millions of voters, which is something that doesn't sit well with Dems.

by RobinLB on Wed Mar 26, 2008 at 02:22:53 PM EST

Re: Democrats defecting is not a big story but a m (none / 0)

DNC is not dienfranchising voters. It was the states themselves who decided to dienfranchise their own voters by moving up their primaries. I am talking as a Floridian.

by Spanky on Wed Mar 26, 2008 at 02:26:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]

This is not true (none / 0)

DNC has stripped delegates in the past.

Delaware comes to mind and in fact they revoted to fix it.

The problem with MI revoting is that knowing that MI wouldn't count some Dems voted for Romney.

How would you feel if you voted for Romney and they revoted and excluded you? Isn't that disenfranchising?

by Chimpeach on Wed Mar 26, 2008 at 03:08:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Democrats defecting is not a big story (2.00 / 1)

If you include those that will stay home or write in other candidates, the Gallup poll shows the following:

Clinton supporters that will not vote for Obama = 41%

Obama supporters that will not vote for Clinton = 28%.

Gallup poll

I believe that 41% number is outside the norm. It represents a serious problem that should not be dismissed.

by Hurdy Gurdy on Wed Mar 26, 2008 at 02:28:11 PM EST

Re: Democrats defecting is not a big story (none / 0)

There's a long time until November, and a lot of anger now.

I think the Obama supporters voting for Clinton number is a little low, actually. Right now, with Obama ahead, his supporters are probabaly, generally, less bitter about how the process has gone and more willing to be conciliatory. If Hillary should pull out the nomination, that 28% will rise before it drops.

But it, and the 41%, WILL drop. Under a unity ticket, especially, but they'll drop, but as time passes, anger fades a little, and Democrats are faced with a President who wants more and longer wars, to do away with employer subsidized healthcare under the premise of providing better healthcare, and who just "isn't an expert on this stuff" such as the economy...yes...they'll drop. We, as Democrats, have a lot of anger toward what the other side has done. It may not be the shiny new "I dislike the other Dem" anger...but it's much deeper and far more important. Most will realize that.

No way. No how. No McCain.

by freedom78 on Wed Mar 26, 2008 at 02:35:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: REAL DEMOCRATS? (none / 0)

But I thought everyone said Hillary was getting the DEMOCRATIC VOTE in all of these primaries. What was that again?

by kristannab on Wed Mar 26, 2008 at 02:50:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: REAL DEMOCRATS? (none / 0)

It's domestic violence that is causing many democratic Hillary supporters to flee Obama.

by Hurdy Gurdy on Wed Mar 26, 2008 at 03:20:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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